The greatest threat to Pakistan’s integrity, since its creation in 1947 is steadily increasing and becoming a vulgar reality than has ever been envisaged.
Setting the scene for chaos…
The deliberate misguiding of President General Pervaiz Musharraf in early 2007 by members of his own establishment, leading to the fiasco of sacking, reinstatement and the subsequent removal of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary and the ensuing “judicial crisis” is leading the country towards utter chaos and potential disintegration. The crisis has been kept alive and kicking in the public memory by the fiery right-leaning print and electronic media outlets, and the so called “civil society” comprising not of the downtrodden ordinary folk of Pakistan, but of NGO leaders and lawyers belonging to the elite classes backed by an enormous and unabated source of mysterious funding. It is indeed ironic that the same Chief Justice Chaudhary did not flinch over the illegal detentions by the security services in partnership with CIA and other foreign intelligence agencies battling the extremist elements hell-bent on destroying world peace in the name of Islam, nor did he find working alongside a President-cum-Army chief an inconvenience till an ill advised reference was logged against his activities and misuse of office earlier last year. The same Supreme Court duly provided legal legitimacy to the actions of an Army Chief when he assumed the control of government and ousted a Prime Minister who was soon to amend the constitutions to suit his right-wing Islamist agenda, and to assume the title of “Ameer-ul-Momineen” (Leader of the faithful in Urdu) similar to the very title that militant Taliban and extremists across the world use for Mullah Omar of Afghanistan.
Certain points to ponder…
Neither can it be completely ruled out that the reference produced against the Chief Justice was flawed and ill timed, nor can the intentions and loyalty of elements within the Musharraf “Administration” be fully exonerated without doubt before and during this debacle. The refusal to use a secure vehicle by the non-functional Chief Justice the day after his reference was made public and his insistence to walk down to the Supreme Court, the subsequent pushing and shoving by Police officers and the repeat telecast of the clips showing the alleged manhandling over several weeks by the “independent” media put together helped ingrain into the minds of many Pakistanis how brutal and undemocratic President Musharraf was along with this Cabinet and allied parties.
The same media cried foul when Lal-Masjid (the Red Mosque) was stormed by crack troops of the Pakistani military’s SSG Commandos, yet it took the troops a good 24 hours to fight the way through the barricades, booby traps and militants entrenched inside the mosque and the adjacent religious school (Jama-e-Hafza) before assuming full control of the institutions. The media somehow failed to highlight the fact that despite the claims by right-wing and Islamist sympathising parties such as Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N and the Jamat-e-Islami, that innocent women and youngsters were brutally unlawfully butchered inside the mosque and school, the students and their leadership managed to defend their fortress and held back the commandos for such a long time using modern arms and ammunition. Neither was this important question addressed by the media or the Islamist parties, nor did the Chief Justice ask the students the reasons for them being armed and holed up in the first instance as if on the slopes of Kargil Valley, when he ordered the release of over 70 captured militants and reordered the repairs and refurbishment of the Mosque and religious school, along with the reinstatement of the captured leader of the school, shamefully caught by the authorities running away hiding under a full body veil in the full glare of the media.
The right-wingers’ game…
Similarly an interesting factor leading the nuclear armed nation towards anarchy is the single point election agenda of Nawaz Sharif’s party that the Judges be reinstated who had either not been invited to take oath under the new Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) of November 2007 issued by President and General Musharraf, or had refused to take oath under this new PCO, whilst previously having had no inhibitions to assume their seats on the Supreme Court bench under a previous PCO issued by the same General-cum-President. By default a sub-section of PML-N’s single point agenda is the removal of Musharraf from power. This seems to be linked to the humiliation that Sharif and his colleagues had to face when they tried to replace the then General Musharraf whilst he was airborne returning from Sri Lanka. The high altitude and high impact drama that included a near crash of the aircraft he was travelling in, along with a scores of school children, with its conclusion at Karachi airport and in the garrison city of Rawalpindi where troops loyal to Musharraf smelt a rat and united in his absence, failing to acknowledge the instatement of a new Army Chief, instead arrested Sharif, his family and his party men, thereby initiating a coup and new era of governance in Pakistan still continuing under the Presidency of Musharraf, even though he has shunned his uniform, once deemed his second skin. Had Pakistan Muslim League – N came up with a multi-faceted agenda to bring economic stability to the country along with a sustainable plan to progress the nation, their credibility would have trebled, however their single-point anti-Musharraf agenda and vendetta against pro-Musharraf parties reeks of political immaturity and incompetence to lead the nation as they did prior to Musharraf’s take over, when the country was on the brink of bankruptcy.
The British community and Labour support to conservative Islamists…
The support of Nawaz Sharif by deeply conservative clan-based ethnic Pakistani communities as well as Labour parliamentarians in Britain hailing from the same ethnicity as Sharif, is indeed disturbing. Apparently one of the community members in spite of being a Labour peer proudly accompanied Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan late 2007 during his first attempt to return to Pakistan, when Nawaz was turned back from the airport and returned to Saudi Arabia where he was in exile under a 10 year deal brokered by the Kingdom’s rulers. However, Nawaz’s second attempt to return proved fruitful although he and his brother were not allowed to contest the elections due to their previous convictions and for other reasons. The support of Nawaz Sharif and other key leader of PML-N’s amongst the Pakistani ethnic Punjabi and Kashmiri diasporas in Britain along with their conservative clan-based inclinations or rather inhibitions towards handling community issues such as forced marriages, self-imposed segregation from the rest of the society and women rights issues, tell a tale worth paying attention to. The domination of Punjabi and Kashmir communities in the UK forming blocks of electoral votes, their strong links to north Pakistan, and hence their influence over the government policy not only suggests how much support by default Nawaz’s Islamist party and his likeminded allies such as Jamat-e-Islami, get in the form of British government’s perspective on the Pakistani political situation, but it effectively sidelines many progressive, liberal and secular viewpoints on Pakistan and global politics which are interlinked due to Pakistan’s strategic geo-political importance.
Martyrs…
Simultaneously, the return of Benazir Bhutto to Pakistan under an alleged British and American brokered power-sharing agreement between her party and those allied to Musharraf, was scuttled to a certain extent as a result of the first unsuccessful attempt on her life on the 18th October and the subsequent fatal attack on the 27th December and has also contributed extensively towards the brewing crisis in Pakistan. Mrs Bhutto’s firm stance on how to tackle the issue of radicalisation and extremism, clearly opposing the viewpoint of Nawaz Sharif, the underlying willingness to form alliances with like-minded parties such as the extremely pro-Musharraf and his own creation Pakistan Muslim League - Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q), secular and nationalistic Awami National Party (ANP) and the educated urban yet poor and middle class led Mutahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), won her no favours with the ring-wing parties nor did she gain any sympathies by the militants in the unruly North Western regions of the country, home to staunch sympathisers of Al Qaeda, Taliban, hopeful to enforce a strict and intolerant brand of Islam akin to the ones that Afghan Taliban had managed to enforce with the help of Pakistani Inter-Services-Intelligence in the 1990s. Ironically as fate would have it, it was during the period when Mrs Bhutto was the Prime Minister that Taliban rose to power with the help of ISI. Her widower Asif Ali Zardari once known by the infamous title of Mr 10% owing to his standard fees to turn a blind eye to any business malpractice within the country, seems keen to keep the party intact, whilst at the same time retaining the power-base in the rural Sindh province and keep the largely Urdu speaking MQM as good friends, who hold absolute power in the urban Sindh esp. in Karachi the economic power house of the country. Since the elections on the 18th February, the trade-off that Zardari has come to accept i.e. allowing Punjabi PPP leaders to take key prominent seats in the Federal Cabinet over Sindhi ones seems to have sidelined many Sindhi-speaking leaders of PPP, thereby exposing a deep rift within the party. One of Benazir’s key confidants Naheed Khan seems to have disappeared off the radar, along with Sindhi Makhdoom Amin Fahim, a major premiership hopeful and PPP parliamentary party president, who was shunned in favour of Yousuf Raza Gilani hailing from a moderate yet spiritual political Sufi Punjabi family.
Zardari’s woes and options…
For the time being in the Federal government, Zardari sees no other choice but to work alongside right-wing Islamist PML-N in a power-sharing deal based on the solemn promise to PML-N that the judges ousted on the 3rd November 2007 are to be restored. The PPP which according to Benazir Bhutto’s will, inherited Zardari’s joint-chairmanship along with her son’s, failed to clinch enough seats in the centre to form a comfortable majority without relying on the support of either the Sharif’s party and nationalist yet secular Awami National Part. Although sticking to the ANP and at the same time embracing MQM and PML-Q being more ideologically closer to PPP than Sharif’s right-wing agenda would have been the ideal solution.
So far, the PPP, ANP have allowed PML-N to become part of the government in an uneasy alliance where the doubts about PPP’s intentions about restoration of the judges through a simple Parliamentary resolution or even an executive order by the Law Ministry often causes friction between the two parties fencing on opposite poles when it comes to their left or right, or to be blunt secular and Islamist leanings. PPP is following the opinion that deadlines and threats of long marches are unacceptable pressure tactics and that the Parliament being the supreme most body should decide the fate of the judges involving a parliamentary committee, which as history goes, could take months with of course no desired results guaranteed. PML-N on the other hand is adamant that the judges be restored as a result of an executive order or a parliamentary resolution requiring a simple majority to go through, without any further delay and definitely not beyond the 30 days timescale as declared jointly by Nawaz and Zardari at the Bhurban resort only recently, prior to getting PML-N to join the coalition government. It has to be noted that the declaration is in violation of a similar Charter of Democracy that was signed by the late Benazir Bhutto and Sharif in London in 2007, according to which they pledged never to appoint a judge who would have taken oath under a PCO issued by Musharraf. The most recent Bhurban declaration on the contrary insists that all the PCO sworn and subsequently ousted judges including Justice Chaudhary be restored.
A movement and its effects…
The movement for the restoration of judiciary with its injected abundant cash flow spearheaded by several lawyers and support from Nawaz Sharif and hardline Islamist parties such as Jamat-e-Islami, seems to have come to a stage where their trust in PPP’s promises seem to be taking a bashing with each passing day. Being hopeful that PML-N would be able to pressurise PPP to reinstate the judges, they are keeping up the momentum in pursuance of their objectives. It may be noted that that judges in their final days in office had clearly became partisan and would offer a lot of support to the Islamist parties and the hardliners, such as they did in the case of the Lal Masjid brigade, whilst at the same time quite likely to cause difficulties for PPP and ANP in their pursuit of liberal and secular agendas. The one time loyal supporter of Benazir’s PPP, the chief of lawyers Aitzaz Ahsan seems more comfortable with the Sharif brothers and Jamat-e-Islami and is frequently seen surrounded by their activists rather than the PPP flag bearers. This goes on to substantiate the claim that PPP’s break-up into various factions is not only inevitable but also imminent. With Zardari being able to continue to command a certain following owing to the Bhutto brand name having added Bhutto to his son’s name against normal tradition, Amin Fahim might choose to create his own forward block. Similarly, Aitzaz Ahsan seems to be a prime candidate hoping to break away several key leaders from PPP and form his own new party with any judges within its ranks, who might not get reinstated including the ousted Chief Justice Chaudhary, already seen delivering speeches and issuing statements like a seasoned politician. At the same time, the PPP in Punjab might very well choose to take sides with their ethnic counterparts belonging to PML-N, rather than tag along with the Sindhi speaking PPP traditionalists and old guard. This would only strengthen PML-N’s hold but only in the populous province of Punjab, their failure to bag seats in the rest of the four provinces is evidence that their success has been reliant on the boycott of 18th February elections by the harline Islamists Jamat-e-Islami, whose supporters were instructed by local leadership to ensure that PML-N was supported at all costs. In spiritual Sindh, nationalist yet progressive minded Balochistan and staunchly nationalist yet deeply conservative NWFP where Jamat-e-Islami did not have strongholds, PML-N also failed to win seats.
Desired options…
In the aftermath of Musharraf’s promise to deliver free and fair elections, the death of Benazir Bhutto and the reluctance to take head on the militant problem posing threats to both Pakistan and NATO forces in Afghanistan, the only solution left for Pakistan to prevent the repeat of 1971 when East Pakistan broke away after a bitter civil war, is for PPP to work alongside the only truly secular and representative of downtrodden poor and middle-class masses MQM and to allow PML-Q to tag along, taking in a new coalition the parties such as ever-so-willing-to-toe-government-line Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman’s Jamiat-Ulmae-Islam (JUI-F), the independents as well as ANP.
Options… #1
The situation could become highly inflammable near to the passing of the 30-day deadline given by the lawyers and Nawaz Sharif for the restoration of the deposed judges, if there would be no sign of their restoration on the horizon. This might prompt some firebrand lawyers, similar to those who recently beat up the ex-minister of Law and Parliamentary Affairs and have in the past pulled similar antics with other pro-Musharraf lawyers and lawmakers, to carry the ousted judges on their shoulders to the Supreme Court building and attempt to install them by force. Nawaz’s party seems quite capable of pulling off such a stunt having had the experience of storming the Supreme Court in the past. This is likely to be resisted by the PPP run administration since Islamabad, where the Supreme Court building is situated, comes under Federal jurisdiction and not under the government of Punjab which is governed by Sharif’s party. Any ensuing clashes will provide the very justification by PML-N to resign from government and take sides with the warring legal fraternity. The resulting civil disobedience, long marches and violent protests might even result in the declaration of another national emergency or atleast in the province of Punjab, the dissolution of the provincial assembly headed by PML-N. This might bring PPP, MQM and PML-Q into a close partnership along with JUI-F and ANP, yet this marriage of convenience may come with the added reservations and grudges on the part of each partner against the other making it an unholy alliance for the sake of national interest.
Options… #2
Coming under increasing pressure and as a result of failure to draw the support of MQM in the province of Sindh and in the centre owing to traditional rivalries, PPP might decide to reinstate the judges hoping that an amicable solution to the judicial crisis could be reached without having to lose face, credibility or having to oust the judges sworn in by Musharraf since November 3rd when emergency was declared in the country leading to the deposition of a large number of judges headed by Justice Chaudhary. Should this happen, it is most likely that a number of cases or suo-moto notices be initiated against Musharraf and his allied parties especially the MQM over the May 12th 2007 clashes which resulted in the deaths of over 50 people on the streets of Karachi when the Justice Chaudhary was due to visit the port city and heavily armed groups fought pitched battles, televised on various news channels. Although there are various news clips and videos posted on the internet showing members of PPP, ANP and Jamat-e-Islami roaming the streets armed to the teeth, yet the blame has largely been put on MQM for all those deaths. Similarly on April 9th 2008, riots in Karachi left several people dead including MQM activists burned to death by a mysterious mob who within a short period of time torched and locked a building and dozens of cars in the city, yet again the carnage is being blamed on the very MQM pushing them against the wall as done in the past with disastrous results for the oppressors.
Similar to late 2007, Justice Chaudhary’s reinstatement might also see the restoration of Lal Masjid, the release of several suspected Islamic militants and a phase where instability might reach unparalleled proportions. Any reaction to such biased injunctions could push the President up the wall leaving no other choice but to declare another Emergency or even the dissolution of the Parliament. A resolution passed in the parliament without implementation by the executive will be meaningless, therefore putting words into action will also be a big test for the PPP led government and could offer another delay in the process of restoration of judiciary leading to deepening of the ongoing crisis.
The MQM and Karachi factor …
There is an increasing likelihood that the city of Karachi being the economic hub of the country could descend into chaos with MQM prepared to fight it to the end should another crackdown on MQM be launched. It has been suggested by many sources that May 12th incidents were a display of power that MQM has regained since the days when countless military and police actions carried out by successive PML-N and PPP governments thousands of its workers get killed or virtually disappeared without trace. It should be noted that the charge sheet against the second Benazir government presented at the time when it was brought down had the extra-judicial killings at the very top. Yet, the vote bank of MQM has remained steady and this time their mandate reached around 90% mark. MQM’s support from grassroots downtrodden and poor masses and its call for the abolition of the feudal system in the country has earned them a great deal of enemies from within each of the parties whether the PPP, PML-N or even the ANP and JI. PPP and PML-N being parties deriving its powerbase from feudal or industrialist classes or those supporting such structures have always found MQM as their arch nemesis for instigating dissent amongst their poor subjugates, who could one day follow the example of MQM and get organised enough to send their own representatives into the assembly as MQM has done since the 1987 elections on a consistent basis. Similarly the February 18th elections showed MQM’s vote bank creep into the other three provinces other than Sindh, ringing alarm bells within the corridors of feudal power. Being the descendants of those folk who migrated from newly independent India into Pakistan having voted for the creation of Pakistan, Mohajirs or Urdu Speakers form the bulk of MQM support along with urban and some rural Sindhi speakers and for the past couple of years or so, from other provinces as well where poor folk have started to get organised under the MQM banner. It is to be remembered that President Musharraf hails from the same ethnic background, another source of friction between him and the ethnic Punjabi, Sindhi and other ethnicities of Pakistan who deem the largely educated immigrant community as undesired especially since they were forced to inhabit the city of Karachi whom they transformed into a business and economic hub of the nation and since 1987 and have proved itself an electoral and streetwise stronghold of Mohajir and other non-Mohajir MQM supporters. The spiritual yet secular and progressive party with the highest literacy rate amongst all the voters of any political party, MQM hails from the same genes as those belonging to Indians who have progresses their country turning into a rising economic power. It can be safely assumed that the true allies of the West in terms of their anti-extremist mindset could only be found in the form of MQM within Pakistan. This time round, the do or die preparation by MQM to counter any moves to implement large scale para-military or police operations are likely to lead Pakistan into an economic crisis as well as a civil war which could have disastrous consequences for the region.
Future looks bleak yet not inevitable…
At a crucial time like this, all the global influential forces who have a stake in nuclear-armed Pakistan’s integrity and the stability of the region, and those who wish for the experiment in democracy to succeed, must recognise the risk from Pakistan turning into a truly failed and civil-war-marred state. The main objective therefore needs be the formation of a new coalition of the willing, those political parties, who did not win on anti-US or religious sentiments, but those which are based on solid liberal, secular and sane ideologies. These are the political forces who are expected to become good allies of the western free world, in the fight against religious extremism, intolerance and the ensuing terrorism.
Any chaotic situation in Pakistan will provide the golden opportunity for those entrenched in the border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan to inflict heavy damage to the NATO forces fighting the local Taliban and any drain on resources in that region could have a knock-on effect on operations in Iraq. On the other hand, any break-up of Pakistan Peoples Party and its failure to join hands with other liberal parties are likely to hand over access of the nuclear arsenal to an Islamist government such as Nawaz’s PML-N, the effects of which are unthinkable and should remain far from ever becoming a reality.
It will be important especially for the British government to take into account the traditional support base of Islamist and conservative groups of Pakistan within the resident population in the UK whilst formulating opinions and perspectives about the situation of Pakistan and whilst extending support to any political groups. Any decisions and policies about Pakistan ideally need to be validated against a range of sources and viewpoints belonging to both conservative and liberal ends of the political spectrum as opposed to basing them entirely on the most vocal sentiments issued by a certain segment of the society whose historic links to their ancestral lands dictate them to present a distorted picture of the ground realities and which may very well go against the interest of the free democratic world.
The moral of the story is it is always better to take sides with those taking part in a political process than reluctantly having to side with parties embroiled in a bitter abd bloody civil war. It’s perhaps a necessity that those who have any influence over Pakistani politics need to exercise that influence with as much seriousness and urgency as can practically be possible.
Setting the scene for chaos…
The deliberate misguiding of President General Pervaiz Musharraf in early 2007 by members of his own establishment, leading to the fiasco of sacking, reinstatement and the subsequent removal of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary and the ensuing “judicial crisis” is leading the country towards utter chaos and potential disintegration. The crisis has been kept alive and kicking in the public memory by the fiery right-leaning print and electronic media outlets, and the so called “civil society” comprising not of the downtrodden ordinary folk of Pakistan, but of NGO leaders and lawyers belonging to the elite classes backed by an enormous and unabated source of mysterious funding. It is indeed ironic that the same Chief Justice Chaudhary did not flinch over the illegal detentions by the security services in partnership with CIA and other foreign intelligence agencies battling the extremist elements hell-bent on destroying world peace in the name of Islam, nor did he find working alongside a President-cum-Army chief an inconvenience till an ill advised reference was logged against his activities and misuse of office earlier last year. The same Supreme Court duly provided legal legitimacy to the actions of an Army Chief when he assumed the control of government and ousted a Prime Minister who was soon to amend the constitutions to suit his right-wing Islamist agenda, and to assume the title of “Ameer-ul-Momineen” (Leader of the faithful in Urdu) similar to the very title that militant Taliban and extremists across the world use for Mullah Omar of Afghanistan.
Certain points to ponder…
Neither can it be completely ruled out that the reference produced against the Chief Justice was flawed and ill timed, nor can the intentions and loyalty of elements within the Musharraf “Administration” be fully exonerated without doubt before and during this debacle. The refusal to use a secure vehicle by the non-functional Chief Justice the day after his reference was made public and his insistence to walk down to the Supreme Court, the subsequent pushing and shoving by Police officers and the repeat telecast of the clips showing the alleged manhandling over several weeks by the “independent” media put together helped ingrain into the minds of many Pakistanis how brutal and undemocratic President Musharraf was along with this Cabinet and allied parties.
The same media cried foul when Lal-Masjid (the Red Mosque) was stormed by crack troops of the Pakistani military’s SSG Commandos, yet it took the troops a good 24 hours to fight the way through the barricades, booby traps and militants entrenched inside the mosque and the adjacent religious school (Jama-e-Hafza) before assuming full control of the institutions. The media somehow failed to highlight the fact that despite the claims by right-wing and Islamist sympathising parties such as Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N and the Jamat-e-Islami, that innocent women and youngsters were brutally unlawfully butchered inside the mosque and school, the students and their leadership managed to defend their fortress and held back the commandos for such a long time using modern arms and ammunition. Neither was this important question addressed by the media or the Islamist parties, nor did the Chief Justice ask the students the reasons for them being armed and holed up in the first instance as if on the slopes of Kargil Valley, when he ordered the release of over 70 captured militants and reordered the repairs and refurbishment of the Mosque and religious school, along with the reinstatement of the captured leader of the school, shamefully caught by the authorities running away hiding under a full body veil in the full glare of the media.
The right-wingers’ game…
Similarly an interesting factor leading the nuclear armed nation towards anarchy is the single point election agenda of Nawaz Sharif’s party that the Judges be reinstated who had either not been invited to take oath under the new Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) of November 2007 issued by President and General Musharraf, or had refused to take oath under this new PCO, whilst previously having had no inhibitions to assume their seats on the Supreme Court bench under a previous PCO issued by the same General-cum-President. By default a sub-section of PML-N’s single point agenda is the removal of Musharraf from power. This seems to be linked to the humiliation that Sharif and his colleagues had to face when they tried to replace the then General Musharraf whilst he was airborne returning from Sri Lanka. The high altitude and high impact drama that included a near crash of the aircraft he was travelling in, along with a scores of school children, with its conclusion at Karachi airport and in the garrison city of Rawalpindi where troops loyal to Musharraf smelt a rat and united in his absence, failing to acknowledge the instatement of a new Army Chief, instead arrested Sharif, his family and his party men, thereby initiating a coup and new era of governance in Pakistan still continuing under the Presidency of Musharraf, even though he has shunned his uniform, once deemed his second skin. Had Pakistan Muslim League – N came up with a multi-faceted agenda to bring economic stability to the country along with a sustainable plan to progress the nation, their credibility would have trebled, however their single-point anti-Musharraf agenda and vendetta against pro-Musharraf parties reeks of political immaturity and incompetence to lead the nation as they did prior to Musharraf’s take over, when the country was on the brink of bankruptcy.
The British community and Labour support to conservative Islamists…
The support of Nawaz Sharif by deeply conservative clan-based ethnic Pakistani communities as well as Labour parliamentarians in Britain hailing from the same ethnicity as Sharif, is indeed disturbing. Apparently one of the community members in spite of being a Labour peer proudly accompanied Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan late 2007 during his first attempt to return to Pakistan, when Nawaz was turned back from the airport and returned to Saudi Arabia where he was in exile under a 10 year deal brokered by the Kingdom’s rulers. However, Nawaz’s second attempt to return proved fruitful although he and his brother were not allowed to contest the elections due to their previous convictions and for other reasons. The support of Nawaz Sharif and other key leader of PML-N’s amongst the Pakistani ethnic Punjabi and Kashmiri diasporas in Britain along with their conservative clan-based inclinations or rather inhibitions towards handling community issues such as forced marriages, self-imposed segregation from the rest of the society and women rights issues, tell a tale worth paying attention to. The domination of Punjabi and Kashmir communities in the UK forming blocks of electoral votes, their strong links to north Pakistan, and hence their influence over the government policy not only suggests how much support by default Nawaz’s Islamist party and his likeminded allies such as Jamat-e-Islami, get in the form of British government’s perspective on the Pakistani political situation, but it effectively sidelines many progressive, liberal and secular viewpoints on Pakistan and global politics which are interlinked due to Pakistan’s strategic geo-political importance.
Martyrs…
Simultaneously, the return of Benazir Bhutto to Pakistan under an alleged British and American brokered power-sharing agreement between her party and those allied to Musharraf, was scuttled to a certain extent as a result of the first unsuccessful attempt on her life on the 18th October and the subsequent fatal attack on the 27th December and has also contributed extensively towards the brewing crisis in Pakistan. Mrs Bhutto’s firm stance on how to tackle the issue of radicalisation and extremism, clearly opposing the viewpoint of Nawaz Sharif, the underlying willingness to form alliances with like-minded parties such as the extremely pro-Musharraf and his own creation Pakistan Muslim League - Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q), secular and nationalistic Awami National Party (ANP) and the educated urban yet poor and middle class led Mutahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), won her no favours with the ring-wing parties nor did she gain any sympathies by the militants in the unruly North Western regions of the country, home to staunch sympathisers of Al Qaeda, Taliban, hopeful to enforce a strict and intolerant brand of Islam akin to the ones that Afghan Taliban had managed to enforce with the help of Pakistani Inter-Services-Intelligence in the 1990s. Ironically as fate would have it, it was during the period when Mrs Bhutto was the Prime Minister that Taliban rose to power with the help of ISI. Her widower Asif Ali Zardari once known by the infamous title of Mr 10% owing to his standard fees to turn a blind eye to any business malpractice within the country, seems keen to keep the party intact, whilst at the same time retaining the power-base in the rural Sindh province and keep the largely Urdu speaking MQM as good friends, who hold absolute power in the urban Sindh esp. in Karachi the economic power house of the country. Since the elections on the 18th February, the trade-off that Zardari has come to accept i.e. allowing Punjabi PPP leaders to take key prominent seats in the Federal Cabinet over Sindhi ones seems to have sidelined many Sindhi-speaking leaders of PPP, thereby exposing a deep rift within the party. One of Benazir’s key confidants Naheed Khan seems to have disappeared off the radar, along with Sindhi Makhdoom Amin Fahim, a major premiership hopeful and PPP parliamentary party president, who was shunned in favour of Yousuf Raza Gilani hailing from a moderate yet spiritual political Sufi Punjabi family.
Zardari’s woes and options…
For the time being in the Federal government, Zardari sees no other choice but to work alongside right-wing Islamist PML-N in a power-sharing deal based on the solemn promise to PML-N that the judges ousted on the 3rd November 2007 are to be restored. The PPP which according to Benazir Bhutto’s will, inherited Zardari’s joint-chairmanship along with her son’s, failed to clinch enough seats in the centre to form a comfortable majority without relying on the support of either the Sharif’s party and nationalist yet secular Awami National Part. Although sticking to the ANP and at the same time embracing MQM and PML-Q being more ideologically closer to PPP than Sharif’s right-wing agenda would have been the ideal solution.
So far, the PPP, ANP have allowed PML-N to become part of the government in an uneasy alliance where the doubts about PPP’s intentions about restoration of the judges through a simple Parliamentary resolution or even an executive order by the Law Ministry often causes friction between the two parties fencing on opposite poles when it comes to their left or right, or to be blunt secular and Islamist leanings. PPP is following the opinion that deadlines and threats of long marches are unacceptable pressure tactics and that the Parliament being the supreme most body should decide the fate of the judges involving a parliamentary committee, which as history goes, could take months with of course no desired results guaranteed. PML-N on the other hand is adamant that the judges be restored as a result of an executive order or a parliamentary resolution requiring a simple majority to go through, without any further delay and definitely not beyond the 30 days timescale as declared jointly by Nawaz and Zardari at the Bhurban resort only recently, prior to getting PML-N to join the coalition government. It has to be noted that the declaration is in violation of a similar Charter of Democracy that was signed by the late Benazir Bhutto and Sharif in London in 2007, according to which they pledged never to appoint a judge who would have taken oath under a PCO issued by Musharraf. The most recent Bhurban declaration on the contrary insists that all the PCO sworn and subsequently ousted judges including Justice Chaudhary be restored.
A movement and its effects…
The movement for the restoration of judiciary with its injected abundant cash flow spearheaded by several lawyers and support from Nawaz Sharif and hardline Islamist parties such as Jamat-e-Islami, seems to have come to a stage where their trust in PPP’s promises seem to be taking a bashing with each passing day. Being hopeful that PML-N would be able to pressurise PPP to reinstate the judges, they are keeping up the momentum in pursuance of their objectives. It may be noted that that judges in their final days in office had clearly became partisan and would offer a lot of support to the Islamist parties and the hardliners, such as they did in the case of the Lal Masjid brigade, whilst at the same time quite likely to cause difficulties for PPP and ANP in their pursuit of liberal and secular agendas. The one time loyal supporter of Benazir’s PPP, the chief of lawyers Aitzaz Ahsan seems more comfortable with the Sharif brothers and Jamat-e-Islami and is frequently seen surrounded by their activists rather than the PPP flag bearers. This goes on to substantiate the claim that PPP’s break-up into various factions is not only inevitable but also imminent. With Zardari being able to continue to command a certain following owing to the Bhutto brand name having added Bhutto to his son’s name against normal tradition, Amin Fahim might choose to create his own forward block. Similarly, Aitzaz Ahsan seems to be a prime candidate hoping to break away several key leaders from PPP and form his own new party with any judges within its ranks, who might not get reinstated including the ousted Chief Justice Chaudhary, already seen delivering speeches and issuing statements like a seasoned politician. At the same time, the PPP in Punjab might very well choose to take sides with their ethnic counterparts belonging to PML-N, rather than tag along with the Sindhi speaking PPP traditionalists and old guard. This would only strengthen PML-N’s hold but only in the populous province of Punjab, their failure to bag seats in the rest of the four provinces is evidence that their success has been reliant on the boycott of 18th February elections by the harline Islamists Jamat-e-Islami, whose supporters were instructed by local leadership to ensure that PML-N was supported at all costs. In spiritual Sindh, nationalist yet progressive minded Balochistan and staunchly nationalist yet deeply conservative NWFP where Jamat-e-Islami did not have strongholds, PML-N also failed to win seats.
Desired options…
In the aftermath of Musharraf’s promise to deliver free and fair elections, the death of Benazir Bhutto and the reluctance to take head on the militant problem posing threats to both Pakistan and NATO forces in Afghanistan, the only solution left for Pakistan to prevent the repeat of 1971 when East Pakistan broke away after a bitter civil war, is for PPP to work alongside the only truly secular and representative of downtrodden poor and middle-class masses MQM and to allow PML-Q to tag along, taking in a new coalition the parties such as ever-so-willing-to-toe-government-line Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman’s Jamiat-Ulmae-Islam (JUI-F), the independents as well as ANP.
Options… #1
The situation could become highly inflammable near to the passing of the 30-day deadline given by the lawyers and Nawaz Sharif for the restoration of the deposed judges, if there would be no sign of their restoration on the horizon. This might prompt some firebrand lawyers, similar to those who recently beat up the ex-minister of Law and Parliamentary Affairs and have in the past pulled similar antics with other pro-Musharraf lawyers and lawmakers, to carry the ousted judges on their shoulders to the Supreme Court building and attempt to install them by force. Nawaz’s party seems quite capable of pulling off such a stunt having had the experience of storming the Supreme Court in the past. This is likely to be resisted by the PPP run administration since Islamabad, where the Supreme Court building is situated, comes under Federal jurisdiction and not under the government of Punjab which is governed by Sharif’s party. Any ensuing clashes will provide the very justification by PML-N to resign from government and take sides with the warring legal fraternity. The resulting civil disobedience, long marches and violent protests might even result in the declaration of another national emergency or atleast in the province of Punjab, the dissolution of the provincial assembly headed by PML-N. This might bring PPP, MQM and PML-Q into a close partnership along with JUI-F and ANP, yet this marriage of convenience may come with the added reservations and grudges on the part of each partner against the other making it an unholy alliance for the sake of national interest.
Options… #2
Coming under increasing pressure and as a result of failure to draw the support of MQM in the province of Sindh and in the centre owing to traditional rivalries, PPP might decide to reinstate the judges hoping that an amicable solution to the judicial crisis could be reached without having to lose face, credibility or having to oust the judges sworn in by Musharraf since November 3rd when emergency was declared in the country leading to the deposition of a large number of judges headed by Justice Chaudhary. Should this happen, it is most likely that a number of cases or suo-moto notices be initiated against Musharraf and his allied parties especially the MQM over the May 12th 2007 clashes which resulted in the deaths of over 50 people on the streets of Karachi when the Justice Chaudhary was due to visit the port city and heavily armed groups fought pitched battles, televised on various news channels. Although there are various news clips and videos posted on the internet showing members of PPP, ANP and Jamat-e-Islami roaming the streets armed to the teeth, yet the blame has largely been put on MQM for all those deaths. Similarly on April 9th 2008, riots in Karachi left several people dead including MQM activists burned to death by a mysterious mob who within a short period of time torched and locked a building and dozens of cars in the city, yet again the carnage is being blamed on the very MQM pushing them against the wall as done in the past with disastrous results for the oppressors.
Similar to late 2007, Justice Chaudhary’s reinstatement might also see the restoration of Lal Masjid, the release of several suspected Islamic militants and a phase where instability might reach unparalleled proportions. Any reaction to such biased injunctions could push the President up the wall leaving no other choice but to declare another Emergency or even the dissolution of the Parliament. A resolution passed in the parliament without implementation by the executive will be meaningless, therefore putting words into action will also be a big test for the PPP led government and could offer another delay in the process of restoration of judiciary leading to deepening of the ongoing crisis.
The MQM and Karachi factor …
There is an increasing likelihood that the city of Karachi being the economic hub of the country could descend into chaos with MQM prepared to fight it to the end should another crackdown on MQM be launched. It has been suggested by many sources that May 12th incidents were a display of power that MQM has regained since the days when countless military and police actions carried out by successive PML-N and PPP governments thousands of its workers get killed or virtually disappeared without trace. It should be noted that the charge sheet against the second Benazir government presented at the time when it was brought down had the extra-judicial killings at the very top. Yet, the vote bank of MQM has remained steady and this time their mandate reached around 90% mark. MQM’s support from grassroots downtrodden and poor masses and its call for the abolition of the feudal system in the country has earned them a great deal of enemies from within each of the parties whether the PPP, PML-N or even the ANP and JI. PPP and PML-N being parties deriving its powerbase from feudal or industrialist classes or those supporting such structures have always found MQM as their arch nemesis for instigating dissent amongst their poor subjugates, who could one day follow the example of MQM and get organised enough to send their own representatives into the assembly as MQM has done since the 1987 elections on a consistent basis. Similarly the February 18th elections showed MQM’s vote bank creep into the other three provinces other than Sindh, ringing alarm bells within the corridors of feudal power. Being the descendants of those folk who migrated from newly independent India into Pakistan having voted for the creation of Pakistan, Mohajirs or Urdu Speakers form the bulk of MQM support along with urban and some rural Sindhi speakers and for the past couple of years or so, from other provinces as well where poor folk have started to get organised under the MQM banner. It is to be remembered that President Musharraf hails from the same ethnic background, another source of friction between him and the ethnic Punjabi, Sindhi and other ethnicities of Pakistan who deem the largely educated immigrant community as undesired especially since they were forced to inhabit the city of Karachi whom they transformed into a business and economic hub of the nation and since 1987 and have proved itself an electoral and streetwise stronghold of Mohajir and other non-Mohajir MQM supporters. The spiritual yet secular and progressive party with the highest literacy rate amongst all the voters of any political party, MQM hails from the same genes as those belonging to Indians who have progresses their country turning into a rising economic power. It can be safely assumed that the true allies of the West in terms of their anti-extremist mindset could only be found in the form of MQM within Pakistan. This time round, the do or die preparation by MQM to counter any moves to implement large scale para-military or police operations are likely to lead Pakistan into an economic crisis as well as a civil war which could have disastrous consequences for the region.
Future looks bleak yet not inevitable…
At a crucial time like this, all the global influential forces who have a stake in nuclear-armed Pakistan’s integrity and the stability of the region, and those who wish for the experiment in democracy to succeed, must recognise the risk from Pakistan turning into a truly failed and civil-war-marred state. The main objective therefore needs be the formation of a new coalition of the willing, those political parties, who did not win on anti-US or religious sentiments, but those which are based on solid liberal, secular and sane ideologies. These are the political forces who are expected to become good allies of the western free world, in the fight against religious extremism, intolerance and the ensuing terrorism.
Any chaotic situation in Pakistan will provide the golden opportunity for those entrenched in the border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan to inflict heavy damage to the NATO forces fighting the local Taliban and any drain on resources in that region could have a knock-on effect on operations in Iraq. On the other hand, any break-up of Pakistan Peoples Party and its failure to join hands with other liberal parties are likely to hand over access of the nuclear arsenal to an Islamist government such as Nawaz’s PML-N, the effects of which are unthinkable and should remain far from ever becoming a reality.
It will be important especially for the British government to take into account the traditional support base of Islamist and conservative groups of Pakistan within the resident population in the UK whilst formulating opinions and perspectives about the situation of Pakistan and whilst extending support to any political groups. Any decisions and policies about Pakistan ideally need to be validated against a range of sources and viewpoints belonging to both conservative and liberal ends of the political spectrum as opposed to basing them entirely on the most vocal sentiments issued by a certain segment of the society whose historic links to their ancestral lands dictate them to present a distorted picture of the ground realities and which may very well go against the interest of the free democratic world.
The moral of the story is it is always better to take sides with those taking part in a political process than reluctantly having to side with parties embroiled in a bitter abd bloody civil war. It’s perhaps a necessity that those who have any influence over Pakistani politics need to exercise that influence with as much seriousness and urgency as can practically be possible.
2 comments:
typical mqm supporter.mqm is not a secular party its a neo-nazi fascist organisation
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Was’Salaam
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