Pakistan: Demise of the unholy alliance

Nawaz Sharif has been forced to pull his political party out of an unholy alliance with the ruling party run by Benazir Bhutto's shrewd widower, Asif Ali Zardari. Unfortunately for Pakistan, this political milestone is likely to set into motion a cycle of events which have the potential to result in the meltdown of the society as a whole, possibly ending with the country’s disintegration, and with repercussions being felt not only across the region but across the world.


One day or the other this was bound to happen.

A right-wing Islamist party such as Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) simply could not have remained in a coalition of left-wing progressive parties such as the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the National Awami Party (ANP).

The most interesting and perhaps shameful aspect to all of this, is the fact that these silly individuals could not even wait a few months, after their arch-nemesis Retd. General Musharraf's resignation, even for the sake of face saving, to stick together. This has strengthened the concept that atleast Musharraf kept the democratic alliance intact whilst sitting at the sidelines, keeping a watchful eye over democracy, yet not interfering too much. His departure from the political arena and the power structure has left the politicians with ample reasons to bring back the bickering and slandering days as was the norm in the 1990s.

With an ex-judge siding with Nawaz Sharif to such an extent as to get nominated for the Presidency, whilst other Justices like Iftikhar Chaudhary and his band of pro-Taliban, pro-Lal Masjid Brigade lawyers, with the support of venom-spitting media outlets such as Geo TV (starring Hamid Mir), it is clear why PML-N and Jamat-e-Islami were so desperate to get the Musharraf ousted Judges restored. Their indication that a PPP President will be acceptable only when the claws of 58 (2b) clause were to be removed from the powers of the presidency, gives strength to the notion that PML-N and PPP never trusted each other. The insistence of restoring a Chief Justice, who for example released over 70 potential terrorists captured from Lal Masjid in 2007 after a pitched battle between holed up militants and the Special Services Group (SSG) commandos, during which more than a dozen highly trained professional soldiers lost their lives, is evident of the fact that elements within the top Judiciary had become too sympathetic to the Islamist cause, perhaps prompting Musharraf to remove them whilst he had the powers to do so.

The frustration at the lack of his favoured judges’ restoration has finally tipped the balance and sent the much hyped about alliance tumbling into political oblivion.

First round to Zardari

In this game of political maneuvering, Zardari seems to have won the first round. However with other progressive and politically strong parties such as ANP and MQM by his side, a deeply humiliating wound has been inflicted, not upon PML-N but none other than the right wing elite of Punjab. Apparently a Sindhi Wadera (landlord) with the support of mainly progressive and secular Pashtuns in the form of ANP and the Mohajir and Sindhi largely educated lower-to-middle classes, has succeeded in annoying and shaming Punjab into backing out of alliance with nothing at their hands but an ousted Musharraf - with an indemnity guaranteed by the powers that be, a weakened lawyers movement, and the mighty military - transformed by Musharraf into anti-Taliban, anti-Mullah defenders away from the anti-India, pro-Islamist force that another late General Zia-ul-Haq had turned them into.

A challenge to Punjabi nationalism

With a lot of tacit support for PML-N within the rank and file of the key opposition party, Pakistan Muslim League – Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q), it remains to be seen whether Punjabi nationalism will rise once again, as it did during the two days of campaigning in the 1998 general elections after the National Assembly contest and prior to the Provincial Assembly polls, when Benazir Bhutto swept the National Assembly seats prompting Nawaz Sharif to take a helicopter riding out to all over Punjab with the slogan of “Jag Punjabi jag” (wake up Punjabis, wake up) shaming them for allowing a Sindh-led PPP to gain significant number of seats in the National Assembly. As a result the tide turned when the same voters turned against PPP and elected PML-N in the Province of Punjab, allowing the party to secure a majority government there.

Should this humiliation be felt across the fertile land of Punjab 20 years later, there will be a significant number of defections from PML-Q as well as some from the PPP, who would not have been happy seeing their last hopes for true Punjab-led domination of the political arena fade away, as opposed to the puppetry that is on exhibition with a feeble Multan-based Prime Minister taking the seat with his strings being pulled from down south rural Sindh. The result of provincial and ethnic rivalry may very well lead to a situation where another feeble and gentle PML-N nominated President gets elected with all the powers intact to dismiss the parliament and calling for fresh elections, which PML-N would hope to sweep in atleast Punjab and perhaps parts of Sindh, now that their expert on the province politics Ghaus Ali Shah has been brought back from self-exile to dent the popularity of PPP. PPP itself might break up into factions, one retained by Asif Zardari, whilst others led by the likes of Makhdoom Amin Fahim and perhaps even the Lawyers’ leader Aitzaz Ahsan, who happens to hail from Punjab is could be seen as the righteous one, with his unflinching loyalty towards the ousted Justices and his excellent relationship with Nawaz Sharif and his top leadership.

Revival of the Right-wing alliance

The Jamat-e-Islami and perhaps even Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman’s JUI-F (F - for sale?), might decide to relive the nostalgia of 1990’s Islami Jamhoori Itehad (IJI) which was created by the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), with even the acronyms sickeningly similar, something admitted quite blatantly by the Retd. General Hamid Gul. Their support reinforced by the likes of confused and pro-Taliban Pashtun nationalist Imran Khan’s Tehrik-e-Insaaf (TI) will strengthen PML-N’s cause even further, capitalizing on Zardari, the former Mr 10%’s betrayal and his continuation of the policies against Taliban and Islamic extremism, will most definitely help them gain sufficient number of seats in the assemblies should elections be called anytime soon.

The one time aspiration of Nawaz Sharif to gain the title of Amir-ul-Momineen (Leader of the faithful) which he came very close to accomplishing prior to getting ousted by Musharraf in 1999, might very well become an achievable reality this time. Should this happen, similar to what the Taliban did in Afghanistan, the Cabinet will probably be re-titled the Grand Shura (council) and general elections replaced by nominations to the Shura by local Mosques and community “Elders” with beards and sticks in their hands. For the time being, the far-fetched idea does seem more real than ever before.

The great divide

The worst possible scenario for Pakistan would be for a President coming into power with right-wing pro-Islamist support, with an extremely uneasy relationship with a left-wing anti-Mullah government, prompting the now transformed Military, bitterly engaged in a civil war in one and a near civil war like situation in another of the two out of only four remaining provinces of Pakistan, to be left pondering whether and when to intervene should the political wrangling continue to destabilise a nuclear armed nation with the economy sliding into a worse state than ever before, and the people being kept hostage by the hundreds of thousands of hate spewing Madressahs and other religious institutions that back in the 1980s its intelligence service itself helped prop up.

A great divide between the secular and progressive minded Southern Punjanbi, Sindhi, Pashtun and Mohajir population along with deeply nationalist yet not at all fundamentalist Balochi people, and the pro-Islamist orthodoxy of northern Punjab and Pashtun tribesmen along with pockets of fundamentalists across the country will fully evolve in the coming months. Such a weakened state of affairs will cause deep concern within the power corridors of Washington, London and other states whose hopes of regaining some sense of order in neighboring Afghanistan is fading fast with the progress of Taliban towards the capital Kabul once again. Whether it’s the tacit support from a largely Shiite Iran for the mainly extremist Sunni Taliban in Afghanistan or the Tribesmen of Pakistan’s Pashtun Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) aiding their brethren across the border, a destablised Pakistan will not serve anyone’s interest hoping to see a decline in religious extremism primarily coming from Muslim communities worldwide. Any external attempt to stabilise the situation, in all honestly, will not go down well with the Pakistani people, nor within the wider Islamic world, as it would be seen as yet another interference of the “West” infidels in matters pertaining their religion and region.

The Nuclear factor

With Pakistan being seen descending into chaos, the world’s attention would be focused not primarily on its politicians or the masses but the bunch of nuclear weapons which are being cared for by the ever-strong military, the only state institution that has maintained its reputation as a professional entity with a tendency to take matters into its hands should the need to retain the remaining Pakistan intact and surviving. The eastern arm now Bangladesh, has already been severed due to the political immaturity and arrogance of West Pakistan’s politicians towards their Bengali brethren in the 1970s. Should the military feel that the survival of its nuclear arsenal, the safeguard against a numerically and technically superior India on the East and a Shiite Iran on the West, and the security of the country is being put at stake due to the political quarrels and an emerging fundamentalism, it may see no other choice but to intervene once more.

Sadly, such a drastic yet not unheard of, step taken by the military this time will not reverse the disastrous cycle that has been set in motion by the wave of religious extremism and fundamentalism coupled with the humiliation of the country’s largest ethnic group at the hands of those ethnicities who have been looked down with contempt and disdain. It is most likely that the spread of Talibanisation will result not only with the cities of Pakistan being hit by Fidayeen (Suicide bombers) attacks, but with plenty of Lal Masjid Brigades coming out to impose their interpretation of Sharia onto the masses in every neighbourhood and marketplace. Any opposition to such heavy-handed tactics will result in further bloodshed and intimidation. Perhaps the only resistance initially such mad Mullahs will encounter will be at the hands of Mutahida Quami Movement, whose muscle-flexing on May 12th 2007 apparently was a show of force to the Taliban and other fundamentalists that their street power has been revived to the same state of preparation as it had been in the 1990s. Unfortunately, apart from southern cities of Sindh, the resistance to the spread of locality based Taliban brigades will be difficult to halt unless the advice of MQM’s chief Altaf Hussain and other like-minded leaders and analysts is taken on board and the general population is adequately trained and armed by either the local pro-democracy political forces or the military to tackle the menace that is bound to take the country in the grip of intimidation and violence at street level.

Chaos and disintegration

The drastic actions of the military might prevent an international force taking control of the nuclear assets and dismantling the infrastructure behind it, however the prevention of the country being taken over by the fundamentalists will only be achieved if and when the masses realise the gravity of the situation and how their religion is being hijacked to turn the nation with lots of potential to follow in the footsteps of Turkey and Malaysia, into one which is governed by laws meant for cavemen living in dark ages.

Time will now be the judge of how Pakistani people, take control of their own destiny with or without the help of friendly powers wishing to see it survive and emerge as a progressive nation and an example of the secular, democratic nation state that Mohammed Ali Jinnah espoused to and which is at the risk of crumbling under the pressure of religious bigotry, intolerance and irrationality.