Is Washington risking a war with Pakistan?

A recent article published in TIME magazine (Washington is risking war with Pakistan: Sept 17th) suggests that Washington is "risking" a war with Pakistan. It appears from recent incidents along the Pak-Afghan border that Washington doesn't want a war with Pakistan, since Pakistan is already on the brink of war; a civil war.



Washington does not need to wage a full scale war against Pakistan on a similar pattern to Afghanistan or Iraq, on the contrary the continuation of sustained low-level incursions and attacks by drones into the tribal regions, is already sufficient to trigger a cycle of violence, instability and disenfranchisement of the local population, which can eventually manifest itself into a full blown civil war within the country.

Non-militant restive Pashtuns would undoubtedly be made to feel they as a nation are under attack both by the US and the Pakistani forces at the same time, perhaps ignoring the fact that the instigators of such bloodshed are militants hailing from their own very regions, hoping to establish a brand of Islam that they deem is the true path to Allah. These Pashtuns would, for the sake of revenge or out of necessity to safeguard their national pride, culture and tradition will increasingly join in the fight against the Pakistani forces, seen to them as equal partners in crime with the US military, sitting across the border at the controls of their unmanned aircraft and satellite imagery screens. At the same time Pakistani forces will probably be forced to militarily engaging the US drones and Special Ops troops as well, with or without the consent of the PPP government.

It needs to be taken into account that Pakistan being a nuclear armed state is good enough to threaten India but does not bother USA since Pakistan does not have the capability yet to strike mainland USA or its key assets in the region without risking a nuclear fallout and ecological destruction of the region.

Any such attacks on US troops based in Afghanistan would definitely result in the nuclear cloud drift back towards Pakistan or to move onto countries such as Iran, Central Asian republics or China, all of whom are friendly towards Pakistan for the time being. Such an attack in addition to killing countless Afghans, is likely to prompt the UN Security Council to call for Pakistan to be stripped off its nuclear assets, something that has probably been rehearsed thousands of times by US, NATO and Israeli forces. Such an operation, without the active involvement of India could lead to the disabling of the armaments and nuclear infrastructure for good. Since India would skillfully choose not be a key player in such an adventure, there will be no justification to launch an attack on the neighbour without risking a full scale war on the Eastern front as well, possibly with a nuclear backlash on Pakistani soil.

The Pakistani armed forces sandwiched between the Jihadi fighters and the US incursions will be faced with a dilemma. Either they will have to abandon their fight against the militants and accept their terms paving the way for a wave of Talibanisation to move down south, or allow the US forces to continue with their operations, providing them with the intelligence required to minimise collateral damage, which in itself lands more willing recruits to the militant cause. In either scenario without the full patronage of the NRO-sponsored civilian government and the political fraternity, any decisions will be harmful for the integrity of the nation.

Any attempts by the militants to exert their influence outside of northern areas will undoubtedly be rigorously and violently resisted by the moderate and secular minded forces that exist largely in the southern regions of Pakistan such as the Mohajirs and deeply spiritual yet completely non-fundamentalist Sindhis alongside possibly the Baloch nationalists as well, whereas the cooperation with US forces would be met with disapproval by the combined masses across the country triggering a political chaos, further deepening the crises.

If one recalls the New map of Middle East (June 2006) from the US Armed Forces Journal, it seems that the pieces are neatly falling into place and a plan perhaps devised decades back by the real powers-to-be, is being realised, though not by occupation or brute force, but by exploiting the deep divisions that exist amongst Pakistani Muslims on the issue of religion, its interpretation and practice. The time tested doctrine of "divide and rule" is being implemented with full vigour once again and can result in the physical division of the country.

The only option left for Pakistanis is to bury their differences that exist in the name of religion, ethnicity and cultural customs and become united in order to protect the integrity of the state. Failing that, the time will come very soon when Pakistanis will be thinking about new names for the regions, emerging after Pakistan's break-up, as independent yet extremely weakened, dependable and pliable states.